We see here perspective to get some value from those games, as we already know who will be on the mound. Let’s start with some useful information for the game 2 in ALCS opposing Orioles and Royals. Baltimore manager will send on the mound the right-handed pitcher Bud Norris, who is really hot at the moment. He blanked the Tigers over 6 1/3 innings in the deciding game of the ALDS, scattering two hits and striking out six. The righty fired 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Royals in May, but he took the loss in a 1-0 defeat. Norris has 3.65 ERA and in his 31 starts this year, he managed to secure 20 scoreless first innings. Royal’s starting pitcher will be Yordano Ventura. He looks to build off an impressive performance in the ALDS. The rookie allowed just one run in seven innings of the Royals’ 4-1 Game 2 win in Anaheim on Friday. He enters the matchup with a 1.26 ERA and 17 strikeouts in two starts vs. the O’s. Plus, in 30 starts, he secured 25 scoreless first innings — amazing performance. Combined Norris and Ventura are 45-16 in first innings, which makes 74% chance of having such outcome in game 2.
In game 1 of NLCS, on the mound we will have two ace pitchers like Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) and Madison Bumgarner (Giants). Wainwright is almost flawless this year with 2.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP and from 34 starts, he secured 30 scoreless first innings. Bumgarner has slightly worse stats, but still he is considered as Giants’ ace pitcher, with 2.98 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 24 scoreless first innings in 34 starts. So when we do the math, it turns out that the chance of having scoreless (or under 1.5 runs) first inning is 79% — it’s good chance, isn’t it?
BAL Orioles vs. KC Royals, Under 1.5 Runs in 1st Inning or/and No Run in 1st Inning
STL Cardinals vs. SF Giants, Under 1.5 Runs in 1st Inning or/and No Run in 1st Inning